UFC Vegas 11: Covington vs. Woodley Odds, Preview, and Predictions!
I wish this fight went down a few years ago when Woodley was the champ and on top of his game. But, time as passed and we finally get to see this fight take place Saturday!
Welterweight Matchup (170): Colby Covington (15-2-0) vs. Tyron Woodley (19-5-1)
Covington will look to make the Welterweight division great again on Saturday with a dominant performance. Woodley has struggled with volume strikers and pressure fighters, and that is Covington's bread and butter. Covington only has 1 loss in his career and it was a KO/TKO loss to Kamaru Usman in his last fight for the title. However, that fight was extremely close and some could argue that Covington was winning that fight up until he was finished with about a minute left in the 5th round. Before that loss, he was undefeated and putting on dominant performances over Robbie Lawler, Rafael dos Anjos, and Demian Maia. At 32 years old, he's in the prime of his career and has taken his game to a new level. His recent beef with American Top-Team (ATT) resulted in him leaving his longtime gym to create his brand 'Colby Covington Incorporated,' and he now fights out of MMA Masters in Miami where he has a personalized training camp. Covington's 'MAGA' persona has made him a heel in the UFC and has provided a 'WWE' flare into the fight game with the promos and constant trash talking. He has undoubtably become a star in the UFC and will look to continue his journey to a championship belt.
On the other side of the octagon is the former Welterweight champion Tyron Woodley. Once touted as the king of the Welterweight division and much talk about him being the Welterweight GOAT, he hasn't won a round in his last 2 fights. He is on a 2 fight losing skid where he looks hesitant when he fights and doesn’t seem to pull the trigger anymore. After losing the title to Usman in a dominant decision victory, Gilbert Burns replicated the same game plan and even almost knocked Woodley out in the first round. Woodley was on a tear before he lost his title to Usman with victories over Robbie Lawler, Stephen Thompson, Demian Maia, and Darren Till. However, fighting against a long-time rival like Covington should light a fire under him and bring back the old Woodley. He has promised once again that he is going to let his hands go on Saturday and score the KO finish. But, he's going to have to bring his wrestling shoes for this fight as well. Woodley's 90% takedown defense will be tested in this fight as Covington averages a high rate of 5.69 takedowns per 15 minutes. But, Woodley is looking to gain insider info from an old teammate of Covington's from ATT (below).
Despite Woodley's attempts revamp his game and train with Jorge Masvidal, I don't believe it will change much. He has to let his hands go in this fight if he has any chance of coming away with the W. I do give Woodley a puncher's chance because he has that T-Bomb right hand, but I'm sure Covington has a game plan to negate that. Covington will be able to mix his chain wrestling with volume strikes to wear Woodley down. At 38 years old, Woodley will not be able to keep up with the cardio of Covington for 5 rounds. Also, something to consider is that Covington only has a 20% KO/TKO rate in his victories, so I can't see him putting Woodley out unless it's late in the fight when Woodley is really exhausted. I'm predicting that Covington will take this fight by decision and get the next title shot against the winner of Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns.
Prediction: Covington (-335)
Bulldogs Risky Pick: Covington by Decision (-160)