UFC Fight Night: Main Event: Jack Hermansson vs Marvin Vettori Odds, Preview, and Predictions
The UFC has had multiple Fight Nights in a row, and this is the last one before the big UFC 256 Card on December 12th. On Saturday night, we have an 'All-European' main event as Jack Hermansson is set to face-off against Marvin Vettori in a fight that has major implications in the Middleweight division.
Middleweight Matchup (185): Jack Hermansson (21-5-0) vs Marvin Vettori (15-4-1)
We have a showdown between 2 of the most intense guys in the UFC. Both Hermansson and Vettori get fired up after a big win, but only one of them will be able to celebrate Saturday night. Vettori is a last minute replacement for this fight, but it's not like he's coming off the couch and stepping into the octagon. He was scheduled to fight Jacaré Souza next week at UFC 256, so he's had a full training camp and is in fight shape. This is a huge opportunity for Vettori because he's fighting the 4th ranked fighter in the division, and with a win, he could catapult himself right into the top 10, and maybe even top 5. At 27 years old, Vettori already has 20 fights to his name and is improving every time we see him in the octagon. He's currently riding a 3 fight win streak and his last fight was a submission win over Karl Roberson in June 2020. Vettori's last loss came again the current champion, Israel Adesanya, where he lost by split decision. But, that fight was Adesanya's 2nd fight in the UFC and he wasn't the same fighter we see today. Vettori is not known for his heavy hands as he only has a 13% KO finish rate in his victories. The majority of his wins are by submission with a 60% finish rate. He will look to pressure Hermansson in this fight early and often. However, Vettori tends to slow down in his fights, so he may need to adjust his gameplan for his first 5 round main event.
On the other side of the octagon, this will be Hermansson's 3rd opponent change for this fight. He was initially supposed to fight Darren Till before he was scrapped from this contest due to injury. Then, Kevin Holland was slated to fill in to fight Hermansson, but he had to pull out due to a positive Covid-19 test. So now, Hermansson is set to fight Vettori and finally has an official opponent on December 5th. Hermansson is a very entertaining fighter and always looks for the finish. He will look to hand Vettori his first ever loss by 'finish' on Saturday night. Hermansson has only gone to decision in 19% of his victories and sports a 52% KO finish rate when he wins. He's also known for his slick submission game as he has a 29% finish rate and has submitted his opponents in 3/4 of his past wins. He showcased his high level BJJ in his last fight against Kelvin Gastelum where he submitted him with a heel hook 1 minute into the fight. Also, Hermansson will have a big 3.5 inch reach advantage over Vettori and will also look to keep him in his range and pick him apart on the feet.
With that being said, this is an extremely tough fight to predict because we don't know how good Vettori really is due to his lack of high-level competition. On the other hand, Hermansson has had the much tougher competition and has proven himself by beating high ranked fighters, so getting him at the 'plus money' is worth taking a shot on him. Unless Vettori can keep a high pace for all 5 rounds (he was training for a 3 round fight), I see Hermansson slowly taking over as the fight goes on because of his incredible gas tank. Let's take Hermansson to win this fight by a close decision in what should be an entertaining back-and forth affair.
Prediction: Hermansson (+110)
Bulldogs Risky Pick: Hermansson by Decision (+400)