• Vinny

NFL Sunday: 1 pm Slate Bets!

The first NFL Sunday of the COVID-19 season is here and you could say I'm quite excited to not only watch some football on Sunday but also place some bets. Lucky for you I'm willing to share my picks with you...cough...2 and 0 so far....cough. This will be an article released every Sunday morning for the whole NFL season. Since I know you're here to just get some quick info and then go place your bets, I'm not going to make you read a novel every Sunday. So how about this? I'll do all the research and collect the data, summarize my findings in a sentence or two for each game, and provide you with my betting picks for all the 1 pm games every Sunday. Sound good? Ok great, let's get into it.



Week 1



Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons


Odds

Even with the Seahawks playing on the road they come into this one as slight favorites.



Preview


Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks won a lot of games last year even when trailing going into the second half. The reason..they have an elite QB in Russel Wilson. But as we saw at the end of the season his magic can run out and, if they don't attack defenses more often in the first half they could end up losing more games then we expected.


Atlanta Falcons

Don't fall for it... the second half Falcons were one of the hottest teams in the NFL and recency bias is a real bitch, especially when it comes to betting. They did show improvements but advanced stats indicated it was a lot smaller than their results indicate. Seahawks can struggle against the run and the Falcons brought in Gurley, so hopefully just as David Johnson did on Thursday Todd proves that he's still an effective NFL running back.

Prediction

Matt Ryan does not do well under pressure thankfully for the Falcons the Seahawks without Clowney could end up last in the NFL for QB pressures. The Matt Ryan and Falcons will put points in this game, the only problem is I think the Seahawks with score more. The Falcons are starting two inexperienced CB's with one being a rookie. Unless Todd Gurley bought some new knees I don't see the Falcons winning this one.



Picks

-Take the Seahawks at -1.5 (-105)

-Both defenses will struggle hit the over and enjoy the game 49(-115)




Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions


Odds

In the battle of NFL incompetence, the Lions are slight favorites at home.



Preview


Chicago Bears

Since the Khalil Mack trade, the Bears have been built around a good defense to survive below average QB play. Last year their defense wasn't as good but a lot of that was due to injuries and lack of depth on the pass rush, which the addition of Robert Quinn should help. The signing of Nick Foles was supposed to lead to Improved QB play this year but to start the season Mitch Trubisky, for now, will keep the starting job.

Detroit Lions

Matthew Stafford was having an MVP year before his season was ended in early due to injury week 10. The Lions bad season allowed them to add a lot of talent at two of their biggest weaknesses at RB and CB. Now it's not expected that Jeffrey Okudah starts right away he could have a drastic impact on the Lions bad pass defense. Some free-agent additions the Lions should see improvement on the defensive side of the ball.



Prediction

This year is realistically Trubisky's last chance to prove he's an NFL starter and thankfully he starts out versus a weak Lions defense. But with the Bear's defense not being as scary as it was when they made the playoffs I see a healthy Stafford getting back to his MVP form last year and leading the Lions to a close win.


Picks

Take the Lions straight up in this one on Moneyline (-130)




Clevland Browns at Baltimore Ravens


Odds

The Ravens in this divisional matchup are favored by over a touchdown.


Preview


Cleveland Browns

Improve O-line through free agency/draft and Freddy Kitchen who is better suited to be a garbage man than an NFL coach is gone. Bring in Kevin Stefanski and the Browns are going to run the ball and use a lot of play-action, which stats show Baker Mayfield is very good when this happens. The Hype train could build back up this year.

Baltimore Ravens Advanced stats prove what everyone already knows... the Ravens were a really good team last year. The majority of their free-agent and draft additions were on the defensive side of the ball and improved run defense could spell even more problems for opponents this year. Look for Lamara Jackson and the pass offense to better this year with improved WR and a healthy Mark Andrews.



Prediction

The Browns beat the Ravens early last season with a surprise victory in week 4, led by Nick Chubb rushing 20 times for 165 and 3 TDs. I don't see that happening again. The Ravens focused on improving their run defense in the offseason and add in that the Browns are adjusting to a new offense this season, I don't trust the Browns in this one.


Picks

Look to pair the Ravens Moneyline(-330) with another game or two for a parlay.




Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings


Odds

We will find out if home field matters this year with the Vikings as home favorites.


Preview


Green Bay Packers

The Packers won 13 games last year but 9 of the 10 wins were in one-score games. Indicating their team might not be as good as their record. Advanced stats indicate there could be a regression in the play of their defense. Adding Aaron Rodgers' potential replacement in the draft may be a Packers' ploy to improve their offense through motivation.


Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings were solid last year but after losing in the divisional round playoffs decided to shuffle the roster. A lot of veterans out on defense and traded WR Diggs for a first-round pick in the draft. A lot of young talent comes into to replace those positions, which leaves a lot to be figured out for the Vikings season success.



Prediction

This is a battle to see who the best team in the NFC North. The Vikings will be without Danielle Hunter in this game though and could be the real game-changer. The Vikings CB's this year are inexperienced and without a pass rush in this game, I see Aaron Rodgers taking advantage of that.

Picks

The Packers offer great value in this one take the Moneyline (+110).




Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars



Odds

The Colts for good reason are large favorites in this one.



Preview


Indianapolis Colts

The Colts were actually quite good last year... just not in the second half of games. This was due to partly below aver play at QB and a 900-year-old kicker that could not hit a field goal to save his life. Welcome in Philip Rivers, yes his arm strength did not look impressive last year but people forget how good the Colts were when Andrew Luck was leading this offense with an injured shoulder and limit arm strength.



Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence looked good on Saturday.



Prediction

I don't see the Colts losing this one. A great o-line and fancy new RB versus one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Don't overthink this one.



Picks

It's too earlier to fully trust Phillip Rivers to cover the spread so play it safe and take the Moneyline (-400) in a parlay.



Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers


Odds

The Raiders come into this one as road favorites.



Preview


Las Vegas Raiders

A very efficient team in 2019 the Raiders were led by rookie RB Josh Jacobs. Additions of multiple rookies at WR and free agents on the defensive side the ball, If Derek Carr can regain any of his 2017 form the Raiders should see more wins than last year.


Carolina Panthers

Christian McCaffrey was the Panthers team last year. New coach in Matt Rhule, new QB in Teddy Bridgewater, and a whole lot of rookies on defense. It's hard to judge the Panthers with all their changes but the offense should be much improved this year with skill at all positions.



Prediction

Both teams are not known for their defense and this one should end up being a shootout. The raiders veterans additions at linebacker could be the difference in the game, as McCaffrey like always will be heavily utilized. Look for the Panthers' defense to just be a bit worse in the battle of bad defenses.


Picks

I don't trust the raiders to cover the points take the Moneyline(-140).




Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots


Odds

At home against the Dolphins without Tom Brady, the Patriots are still large favorites.



Preview


Miami Dolphins

The tank for Tua finally paid off as the Dolphins drafted him 5th overall in the draft. The tank is over as the Dolphins spent 237 million in free agency this year. Is there team better this year, well they can't be worse. The lack of skill at the RB and QB position (until Tua starts) should limit the potential of Miami to get wins early.



New England Patriots

No more Tom Brady, Cam Newton is now the starting QB and a whole lot of Covid-19 opt-outs on defense. The Patriots making the playoffs for the first time in my life is in question. Bill Belichick has always adapted and now having a mobile QB for the first it will be interesting how effective this offense can become with Newton at QB.


Prediction

Ryan Fitzpatrick has one big game...we've seen it year after year. I don't think it is today, the Patriots defense struggles mightily with play-action but with the Dolphins' inability to run the ball that is much less of a problem. The Dolphins are better but not that much better


Picks

The spread could end up being a push in this one if the offense starts off slow take the Patriots Moneyline(-300)




New York Jets at Buffalo Bills


Odds

The Bills are easy favorites in this one.



Preview


New York Jets

They still have Adam Gase, which advanced stats aside I don't think even Jets fans are happy he's the head coach. Sam Darnold will be starting at QB for the Jets in his third season in the NFL and is looking to lead the Jets offense which was the worst in the league last year, with Chris Hogan listed as a starting WR on the depth chart.....


Buffalo Bills The Bills went all in trading for Stefon Diggs in the offseason and with the Patriots transition from Tom Brady, should be the best team in the division. Their elite defense should cause a lot of problems for the ineffective Jets offense in this game.


Prediction

Le'veon Bell will have to show everyone why running backs should be paid 20 million per in this game if the Jets are going to have any chance. The Bills are a good team that improved in the offseason and if the offense produces, the jets will have no chance. also can't wait for all the at-home Bills Mafia videos


Picks

The Bills cover in this one -7(+105).



Philadephia Eagles at Washington Football Team


Odds

I cant see the Football Team being favored in any games this year.



Preview


Philadephia Eagles

The Eagles upgraded in a big way at DB with Darius Slay and their overall defense should be much improved this year. On offense with Carson Wentz at QB the Eagles just need to keep the medical tent empty to improve this year. Bad start with Miles Sanders out week one...


Washinton Football Team

The Football team...lol. Were not very good last year and a lot of it was due to their inefficient play calling on offense and add in Dwayne Haskins has looked like a below-average NFL starter at best. The draft capital in their d-line may start to pay off and may carry them to a couple wins this year.



Prediction

An improved Eagles defense is not good news for Dwayne Haskins. So even with how good the Football Team's defense could be, I don't see Haskins matching Wentz in offensive production in this game.


Picks

The Eagles offense is not healthy enough to trust the spread, bet the Moneyline(-240).

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