Fight Island Madness: Bulldogs Risky Picks! Lets Eat
Let's go through my risky picks for this week at UFC Fight Island 3 on July 25th. Bet with caution...however, big dogs gotta eat.
Welterweight Matchup: Alex Oliveria (20-8-1 2NC) vs Peter Sobotta (17-5-1)
Bulldog's Live Dog: Sobotta Moneyline +130
Bulldogs Risky Prop: Sobotta by Submission: +400
This is expected to be an entertaining fight between two finishers. According to the UFC stats, Oliveria's fights go to a decision 20% of the time, while Sobotta's fights end by decision only 12% of the time. So, as the numbers suggest, these two fighters look to finish their fights within distance and I have a feeling this contest will not end up any different. Oliveria is finishing his opponents by KO/TKO 60% of the time, while Sobotta is finishing 59% of his victories by submission. Oliveria has been in a lot of wars in the UFC and looks to be on a slight decline in his career as he is 1-3 in his last four fights. If Oliveria can't score the knockout early in this fight, his gas tank is suspect and he tends to get much sloppier as the fight goes on. Sobotta has a black belt in BJJ and I can see him using his high-level ground game to catch Oliveria in a submission during a wild scramble in the later rounds.
Heavyweight Matchup: Tom Aspinall (7-2-0) vs. Jake Collier (11-4-0)
Recommended Prop Bet: Aspinall by KO/TKO: -110
Bulldogs Risky Prop Bet: Aspinall win in the first round: +200
According to the official UFC stats, Aspinall is finishing 86% of his fights by KO/TKO, with all of his victories coming in the first round. This will be Collier's first career fight in the Heavyweight division as he last fought at Light Heavyweight, and has even fought as low as Middleweight in his career! Despite all that, Collier weighed in at 264 pounds at the official weigh-ins for this fight (HOW)! His counterpart, Aspinall, weighed in at 248 pounds. In addition, Collier's last fight was in November 2017, so there are many uncertainties with him coming into this fight, especially considering his massive weight gain during his inactivity from fighting. This is Aspinall's first career UFC fight, but he has trained with high caliber fighters like Darren Till at Team Kaobon. I expect Aspinall to jump on him early in this fight after such an extended layoff for Collier. On Bodog, you can look to turn a Aspinall -300 Moneyline bet into a -110 KO/TKO prop bet. If you are looking to cash in even more, you can bet Aspinall to win this fight in Round 1 at +200!
Go place your risky bets, so you can eat like a big dog tonight!